More boosters = more hospitalisations?
NSW Covid data show alarming trend for 4+ dosed population
The NSW Covid data just keep getting worse. I’m in amazement that no mainstream media outlet is reporting on this. There is reporting on the surge in hospitalisations, but no mention of the fact that they’re almost all vaccinated. By end of page, there is always the obligatory advice to get boosted because, “safe and effective.”
The NSW Respiratory Surveillance Report for epidemiological week 27 is in, and there is a clear trend emerging. The 4+ dose group is over represented by a factor of 2.1 in NSW Covid hospitalisations, climbing from 9% in week 21 to 19.8% in week 27. This despite the fact that only 9.5% of the NSW population is 4+ dosed.
Additionally, unvaccinated patients comprise 0.3% of hospitalisations, coming in at under 1% of total NSW Covid hospitalisations for the 7th week running. By comparison, unvaccinated people make up 13.2% of the NSW population, including children. The portion of the NSW population that is eligible for Covid vaccination but remains 0 dosed is: 3.3% age 16+, 17.5% age 12-15, 50.3% age 5-11.
Deaths: the only groups over represented this week are the 1, 3 and 4+ dose groups, with the 3 and 4+ groups showing the most significant over representation. This pattern is consistent with data from week 21 up until now. Last week, 45 out of the 95 reported deaths were aged care residents. Of the 6 people who died under the age of 65 years old, 4 were triple vaccinated and 2 were doubled vaccinated. By deduction, the 11 unvaccinated people who died with Covid last week were over the age of 65.
For anyone reading my Substack for the first time, I want to clarify that I do not think single weeks should be taken on their own. For further context, please see my previous posts on NSW Surveillance Reports HERE and HERE.
El Gato Malo has also recently reported on the trend of higher vaccination rates correlating with higher hospitalisation rates in the USA.
Meanwhile, I’ve been thinking on the bad cat’s theory that Covid vaccines can cause more Covid deaths while looking like they prevent them. The Covid vaccines do seem to offer some benefit (mainly to older people) for reducing death by Covid. At the same time, however, they seem to be driving reinfection for reasons explained by Geert Vanden Bossche, among others. As the theory goes, while unvaccinated people have a higher death rate on the first round of infection, the vaccinated population is more prone to reinfection. Hence, over the course of multiple infections, the vaccine efficacy for deaths is eliminated or reversed.
Building on this theory, an Israeli study published in the New England Journal of Medicine a fortnight ago found that the likelihood of Covid infection increased in people aged 60+ as their dose rate also increased. Big thanks to another helpful reader for handballing this my way.
It’s early days for this theory, but it’s got me wondering - is the over representation of the 3 and 4+ dosed population in NSW hospitalisations and deaths due in part to reinfections?
This would not be the only factor in play, but it’s interesting.
To me, there is a case for tracking the rate of Covid reinfection by vaccination dose rate in the Australian population.
The above-mentioned Israeli study was primarily comparing how long people remain contagious after infections. The study found that unvaccinated people clear the virus faster, with 31% of boosted people still contagious 10 days post-infection vs. 6% unvaccinated. Quadruple vaxxed Anthony Fauci and his Covid rebound comes to mind.